Best value bets for Classic action on Saturday June 3

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 130pts profit.
• So far this Flat season he’s tipped winners Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1 (R4), Roberto Escobarr at 9/2 and Austrian Theory at 9/1 on Friday.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, June 3

1pt win San Antonio in 1.30 Epsom at 33/1 (BoyleSports, Ladbrokes, Coral) – general 25/1 fine

1pt e.w. Zarzyni in 3.20 Epsom at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt win Silver Sword in 3.55 Epsom at 14/1 (General)

1pt win Haliphon in 4.30 Epsom at 16/1 (BetVictor, Coral, BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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Strong chance Dettori signs off in style

The Betfred Derby is the greatest test of a three-year-old thoroughbred and this year obviously comes with added trepidation due to very real fears over protestors disrupting proceedings, but let’s just hope we’re hailing a genuine champion by Saturday afternoon.

There are potential story lines everywhere you look in this year’s field of 14 and few would top Frankie Dettori winning the Classic for the third time in his final Derby aboard Arrest, who looks to be finding his correct place in the market having been as big as 7/1 in places just before final declarations.

His Cheshire Vase success was the single Derby trial this spring that really got me fired up, the big and babyish Frankel colt from 2022 suddenly looking much more of a man when smartly going through the gears on the soft ground and winning eased down from Adelaide River, who reopposes this weekend.

Arrest has a rounded action, admittedly, but he’s proven on all types of going now having won his novice last year on good to firm at Sandown. He’s fully proven over the distance and should also be able to stay out of any of the potential early scrimmaging from stall 13 which will – in theory – allow Dettori to negotiate the first right-hand dog-leg before nestling in somewhere handy behind the leaders.

Who represents the best bet at the odds?

With the Arrest value drying up over the past 48 hours or so (he’s a best-priced 9/2 at the time of writing), there’s only one horse who looks significantly out of line with what I’d expect come the off and that’s SAN ANTONIO, who only appeared to find his way onto the Ballydoyle teamsheet in midweek.

He was reportedly heading for the Prix du Jockey Club (10f) and was widely available at 40/1 as a result, but the revised 25/1 (33s with a couple of major firms) still looks a bit of a mad price when you consider he’s your typical O’Brien-trained three-year-old improver, who very much promises to enjoy his first crack at the Derby trip.

Aside from stablemate Auguste Rodin, he’s arguably one of the best-bred horses in the race too being a son of Dubawi out of Galileo mare Rain Goddess, who was second only to Enable in the 2017 Irish Oaks.

Bizarrely, some people may wish to throw rocks at San Antonio for being by Dubawi, who has remarkably yet to sire a winner of the Oaks or the Derby (0-14), but he has in fact been one of the best performing sires at this course over the years (his progeny operating at a 25% strike-rate here) and it simply looks another one of racing’s great anomalies on a par with the recently-busted hoodoos surrounding stall one in this race, and seven-year-olds in the Grand National. Dubawi will sire Derby winners, it is simply a matter of time.

O’Brien is going to have to lean on this sire a lot more in the coming years as well, and it seems he’s still finding his way with them to some degree, but Charlie Appleby has always stressed how much the colts can progress with time and experience and it certainly looks the case with this one, whose two juvenile efforts left enough to be desired.

Is the bare form of San Antonio’s length and three-quarter win over Alder in the Dee Stakes good enough to win the Derby? Clearly not, but we’re surely only just getting started in his overall development and I loved the way this horse responded to Ryan Moore’s canny race-riding on the day – he was there for the jockey at every turn and evidently didn’t mind the rough and tumble of Chester’s tricky track.

After looking to make the running early, Moore opted to sit just behind Stormbuster on the inside rail and his mount travelled sweetly, kicked into the lead on turning for home and was never better than at the finish line.

A good ride, granted, but the best horse won and I’m dead keen to see what he can do on Saturday. Stripping away all the hype, the fact San Antonio is seven or eight times the price of 2000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin is plain wrong and, while Arrest remains the most likely winner in my view, this outsider has to be backed.

Barron beauty circling back to peak form

The five handicaps that follow the unusually early feature (and the small-field Princess Elizabeth Stakes) are very hard races to crack but I’ve a trio in mind at current odds and will skip the three-year-old version and move straight onto the Aston Martin ‘Dash’.

I’m determined not to get too hung up on the draw as winners have come from right across the track down the years but they’ll obviously go a blistering pace and ZARZYNI could at least pick up some of the pieces if getting some luck in the run.

He’s had a fairly frustrating time of things since recording his most recent win off a mark of 99 in the first-time cheekpieces last April but running so well in the Palace House Stakes and a heritage handicap at Ascot on his next two starts was never going to help his mark come down and it’s only this season that he’s looked to be competitively treated again.

And recent evidence suggests he’s coming back to the boil at the perfect time for this test, having stepped up on his comeback fifth at Musselburgh when seen doing some good late work in a hot contest won by Chipstead at York last weekend.

He gets to run off a 2lb lower mark here so is right down to 94, his lowest rating for a couple of years, and he loves chasing down a strong gallop which looks the order of the day here. I’ll be backing him each-way with the firms offering five places.

Sword can strike in competitive heat

I recently made the case for SILVER SWORD winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury, only for him to be taken out on the morning of the race, and will stay loyal as he returns to action in the equally competitive Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap.

One can only imagine this has been a tricky horse from the outset as he arrived for his racecourse debut a gelding and promptly refused to race at Chelmsford in August, faring no better at Lingfield later in the month, but when he finally consented to take part his first meaningful effort yielded a creditable fifth behind Derby contender Military Order in a Newmarket novice.

He then followed home decent filly Empress Wu in a Lingfield maiden in November before returning to action this spring with an easy victory at Southwell.

The bare form doesn’t amount to much but he won eased down by three and a quarter lengths from a subsequent Ripon maiden winner, with nine and a half lengths further back to the third (not raced since) and he now goes handicapping off a mark of 82.

There’s a bit of guesswork in that rating but the grey promises to be suited by the step back up to 10 furlongs on a sound surface and I’m backing him to maintain South African trainer (now based in Newmarket) Dylan Cunha’s 100% record at Epsom after Expressionless’s three-year-old handicap debut victory here the other week.

A case of going one better 12 months on…

I’m a big fan of Mr Wagyu in the last but that ship has seemingly sailed (no bigger than 4/1 at time of publication), whereas HALIPHON looks massively overlooked in the Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap.

He was dropped back from two miles to very nearly win this event 12 months ago under Royston Ffrench, looking to have the race sewn up in the final furlong only to be run down by William Buick on Midnights Legacy, who edged the verdict by a nose.

Haliphon is 4lb higher in the ratings now but he did go on to win his next two starts at York (1m6f) and Chester (1m4f) from 85 and 90 respectively, so he’s definitely not handicapped out of things off his current mark of 89.

He’s also dropping from two miles again, having struggled to cope with the trip and soft ground at Ascot last month, while the going was pretty testing at Thirsk too on his seasonal return in April.

It’s not that he doesn’t handle deeper conditions but he looks happier on good going these days and it could be significant that the cheekpieces, worn for the first time in over a year when scoring at Chester last July, are back for the first time this season.

He rates a bet at double-figure odds under capable 3lb claimer Ben Sanderson.

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Published at 1500 BST on 02/06/23

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