Bookies break down NBA, NHL Playoffs, big bets

With football season still months away, there’s nothing like a good Game 7 to get the sports betting juices flowing. Fortunately – or maybe we should say hopefully – the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are willing to deliver just that on Monday night to close out Memorial Day weekend.

However, that’s not all that’s going on in the sports betting space.

Half the field of the Stanley Cup Finals is ready, with the starting Florida Panthers waiting for the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars in the Western Conference. And even at the end of May, NFL betting continues to be part of the landscape.

So let’s serve up a smorgasbord of nuggets on the NBA and NHL playoffs, revealing details about how your ability to make NFL picks could net you a $14 million chunk this fall.

Boston bounces back

Last Monday night, the eighth-seeded Heat sat with a 3-0 series lead against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. A week later, Boston has the series tied at 3, and we get a huge Game 7 on Monday night in Beantown.

The winner will advance to the Denver Nuggets and make their first appearance in the NBA Finals. Boston is a 7.5-point home favorite against Miami (also on FOX Bet), but BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said the action on the Strip is very focused on the underdog Heat.

“Immediately they pounced on the Heat here. We went from 8.5 to 7.5,” said Shelton, noting that a lot of money landed on Miami as the line first went up on Saturday night after Boston’s buzzing Game 6- win to tie the series. “Ticket count is almost six to one on the Heat, and the money is almost seven to one on the Heat.”

The total was also immediately popped.

“There was immediate sharp play on the Under,” said Shelton on Sunday evening. “We opened at 206.5, and it was knocked down as soon as it opened on Saturday night. We’re at 203.5 now.”

[RELATED: Heat-Celtics Game 7 odds]

Shelton said there are no big bets on Game 7 yet, but he expects one or two high rollers to weigh in before the 8:30 PM ET tip. Either way, betting on the future of the Eastern Conference championship makes the Heat a notable liability in Vegas.

“To win the East, we’re a six-figure loser to the Heat,” Shelton said, noting there’s a downside to that potential loss. “However, we would kind of make up for it if the Heat won it all against the Nuggets, instead of the Celtics winning it all.”

The big picture, however, LeBron James & Co. being out of the picture is all BetMGM Nevada needed.

“Once the Lakers went out, it felt like we had free rein,” said Shelton. “Had the Lakers won the championship, it would have been one of the biggest future book losses in BetMGM Nevada history.”

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Think ahead

Rex Beyers has worked for some of the industry’s most respected sportsbooks, including The SuperBook and South Point in Vegas. Beyers is now head of betting at PlayUp USA, which operates in New Jersey, Colorado and Iowa.

With the Nuggets already in the NBA Finals, Beyers discussed the series’ chances for a possible Celtics-Nuggets matchup and Heat-Nuggets matchup.

“I rate the Nuggets higher than anyone else, and I have all the time,” Beyers said of his position during the playoffs. “I really think Denver is the superior team.”

However, Boston would have home field advantage against Denver in the Finals, for what it’s worth. Beyers believes the advantage is almost negligible, although the Celts would likely open as a favourite.

“Home court doesn’t mean that much in the NBA today, and I really don’t think Boston can be any true favorite. The Celtics will be a small run favorite, but they shouldn’t be allowed -140 or higher, which I think they could be ,” said Beyers. “I think it should be much closer to a pick (-110). I’ll be the cheapest price on Boston. I’ll make sure my first bet is on Boston.”

Beyers also pointed out that Denver is fantastic at home, going 34-7 in the regular season and 8-0 so far in the postseason.

“I think the Nuggets win all three at home. In theory, Denver just needs to win one on the road. And I think they can win two on the road,” he said. “Nothing would surprise me except that Boston would win. I don’t see the Celtics beating Denver four times, whether the games are in Boston, Denver or on Mars.”

Of course, the Heat will have something to say about the NBA Finals matchup. If Miami resumes the Cinderella playoffs by winning Game 7 in Boston, Beyers would make Denver a major NBA Finals favorite.

“If it’s Heat-Nuggets, I’d say Denver -550 / Miami +425,” Beyers said. “Anything a little lower or a little higher wouldn’t surprise me, but I can’t see much off that.”

Florida watches and waits

Meanwhile, the Stanley Cup playoffs already have a number 8 from the Sunshine State in the championship series. The Panthers defeated the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals.

So the Panthers already have five days of rest and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final is not until Saturday. That means Florida will be well rested once the Golden Knights and Stars settle their affairs in the Western Conference Finals. Regardless of who wins in the West, Vegas or Dallas have home field advantage against Florida.

If it’s a Panthers-Knights Cup final, then Beyers – who works out of Las Vegas – will have a very different need than most Sin City bookmakers.

“We’re in bad shape going to Florida,” Beyers said, referring to the Stanley Cup futures market at PlayUp. “We have money on Florida at 45-1, 35-1 and 30-1. I’m the only bookie in Vegas going to thumbs up for the Knights. We need the Knights for a stack. We’re a small winner to the Knights , and we’re losing more than we should to Florida.”

Likewise, the book needs the stars if they continue to take on the Panthers.

“If it was anyone other than Florida, we’d go with that side,” Beyers said.

What is the warranty?

For the past few weeks, Circa Sports has been teasing its annual NFL pick games with commercials asking, “What’s the guarantee?”

The guarantee is how much Vegas casino owner and avid sports bettor Derek Stevens will wager in those two games: Circa Millions, in which contestants make five NFL picks against the points spread each week of the regular season; and Circa Survivor, in which contestants make one choice per week, but cannot use the same team twice.

For the 2023-24 NFL season, that guarantee is $14 million – $8 million for Circa Survivor and $6 million for Circa Million. It costs $1,000 to enter each game, but when you think of that as ostensibly a $1,000 bet that covers the entire season, many people find that pretty appealing.

“It’s definitely part of the appeal when you think about it. It’s less than $60 a week,” Stevens said. “You get a ton of entertainment value. You can play anywhere. That all plays into it. You get a ton of action for the price. And the benefit when you get hot is incredible.”

Indeed, Circa Million guarantees $1 million to the winner – the contestant with the best against-the-spread record over the entire season – and the top 100 finishers in cash. There are also quarterly payouts and even a $100,000 prize for the contestant who sets the worst record. And all entry fees go back to the participants. Circa Sports doesn’t make a dime.

Circa Survivor, as the name suggests, is a winner-take-all pool. Last season’s winner won $3 million. In both games, as Stevens mentioned, you don’t have to live in Nevada to participate. You just need to make a trip to downtown Las Vegas before the NFL season starts to get in and have a Vegas-based proxy submit your picks each week.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of both competitions is that while many recreational gamblers participate, professionals also participate. In general, sharp gamblers don’t like having their money tied up for months. But the perceived value in this kind of competition makes it worth it.

“Both of our games play for both starting players and sharp players,” said Stevens. “The fact that we don’t take rake (from the entry fee) on any of our football matches creates scenarios with a positive expected value, which attracts the professionals. Its simplicity makes it appealing to beginners.

“It’s a really unique situation that makes them attractive to both, and it points to the growing consumer base.”

I like big bets and I can’t lie

OK, I only have one bet to mention in this space, and it’s not even a big one. But it was a really nice payout, and it appeals to the more casual sports bettor.

DraftKings Sportsbook offered an NBA playoffs proposal bet on whether the Eastern Conference Finals would have a game decided by a buzzer-beating game-winning basket. In Game 6 on Saturday, that’s exactly what happened.

With Boston trailing 103-102 with only three seconds remaining, Marcus Smart took an inbound pass from Derrick White and threw a desperate three-pointer. Smart’s shot missed, but White crashed into the boards and tapped in the rebound as the clock expired.

So the Celtics won 104-103, and anyone who jumped on that prop – who paid +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 in total) – was paid nicely at DraftKings. The largest bet recognized by DK was only $100.

Still, a $4,000 profit is a pretty nice return on a $100 investment. May we all see such an ROI on every bet in our entire life.

Enjoy Heat-Celtics Game 7 and Knights-Stars Game 6, and remember: never bet more than you can afford to lose. Keep it reasonable, folks.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a leading journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas where he likes to play golf in 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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