Date Announced For Rishi Sunak’s Double By-Election Test

AFP

Ukrainian forces readying for breakthrough bid: analysts

The beginning of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against the Russian invasion has revealed little about Kyiv’s wider tactical plans, but Ukrainian forces are ready to exploit the slightest cracks in Russian defences, analysts say.Kyiv’s military launched its offensive in the east and south of the country, asserting to be “moving forward” while Russia claims Ukraine has suffered “catastrophic” losses. ”We are definitely seeing a lot of tactical deception operations and can expect additional and larger such operations as the campaign progresses,” Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with the British security intelligence firm Janes, told AFP.”That is one of the primary benefits of being on the attack –- you have the ability to choose the time and place to your advantage while keeping the adversary guessing.” Information available shows that Kyiv has not thrown all of its forces into battle. At the front, there are 13 mechanised, two armoured and three paratrooper brigades, along with mobile air assault forces, according to Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES). That’s just 15 percent of its army, involving 3,000 men. The forces are “ready to rush toward the next possible breakthrough,” he said. These multiple but minor assaults are designed to test Russia’s resilience. - Tactics -But the fight will be complicated. ”The total units in the struggle — infantry, reconnaissance, armoured, mechanised, paratroopers, is 75 brigades for the Ukrainians, and 65 for the Russians in Ukraine and near the border,” Razoux said. “The difference isn’t huge.” Kyiv’s objectives for the assaults so far are not clear.It’s likely that Kyiv is targeting cities occupied by Russia like Melitopol and Tokmak in the south, and even Lugansk in the east, according to Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher for the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia. ”Operational hubs under Russian occupation such as these are likely a key objective of the ongoing counter-offensive,” he told AFP. Other targets could be Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, and Donbas in the east, which is largely under Russian control today. Both are politically significant and would be militarily ambitious fronts.  Looking at Crimea, “they can take it but it’s not worth the pain” and could be detrimental to their overall military efforts, said Alexandre Grinberg with the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS). ”The declared objective is the liberation of the Donbas. But what are the operational plans? It’s impossible to know.”Operations in the north are unlikely, and in the south, strategic access through the Sea of Azov is blocked by Moscow. Rezoux said regaining ground in Donbas would be politically symbolic, but would have no strategic purpose militarily — unless the objective was to pull Russian troops to the area before launching an offensive in the direction of the Sea of Azov. - Clock ticking -Regaining control of part of the Sea of Azov could isolate Crimea and threaten 80 percent of Russia’s maritime trade, he added. But the Russian forces have been preparing for months for Ukraine’s offensive. A line of defence is in place extending 800 kilometres, with a large number of soldiers to hold it. ”Russian defence is organised in layers. It’s not sophisticated: the adversary must overcome its obstacles, one after another,” Grinberg said. “The Ukrainians can break through, but not force this mass of Russian units to collapse.” The New-York based security think tank the Soufan Center has said that the window for the counteroffensive to succeed is “limited, at best”.After 16 months of war, President Volodymyr Zelensky  must prove his ability to push Moscow back to show the value of Western military aid and encourage allies to send more.Kyiv “wants to deliver a substantial ‘win’ to demonstrate its ability to fight to both its population and Western partners”, Klyszcz said. “They do aim to liberate all occupied territory as soon as possible.”The Soufan Center said there would be “serious questions” about the willingness of Western countries to continue supporting Ukraine militarily at current levels if the counteroffensive stalls.The Kremlin’s strategy is to buy time, wear out its opponent and hope for the election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 “because he is disinterested in Ukraine,” Razoux said. From then on, the Kremlin would “hope that a weary Europe will divide over the conflict.” dla-giv/sjw/ya