Fantasy Outlook For The Hot Pitchers So Far

Take a look at the player raters of any number of websites and you’ll likely see some curious names among the most valuable starting pitchers. Or, I guess you could play it cool and pretend like seeing Mitch Keller and Eduardo Rodriguez in the Top 10 and Tyler Wells in the Top 15 is no big deal. But for most people outside of their immediate families, this probably feels pretty surprising. Or, possibly downright unsettling; we are, after all, talking about the Tigers, Orioles, and Pirates each possessing one of fantasy’s better pitchers.

If so, you’d better chug some Pepto because these three have put up the shiniest of numbers through the first third of the season and those stats have been banked, whether they turn back into pumpkins or not. What’s past is past, the question now is how we handle them going forward. Do we ride the snake and just keep rolling them out with impunity, or try to sell them off in a bid to take your numbers and run while the getting is still good?

Let’s examine these three surprising starters and try to figure out how much of their previous value will carry over to the future. We’ll look at what’s different, what’s the same, where their roto value is coming from now, as well as the chances of those categorical contributions continuing.

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47 IP: 3 W – 39 K – 2.68 ERA – 0.72 WHIP (SP 14)

Specs Check

The biggest change to Wells’s pitch mix is evident, as he dropped the sweeper from 2022 and went back to a traditional slider (16% usage). And for those wondering why pitch classification systems are now separating the two, Wells shows a clear example; his slider this season has 36 inches of drop and 5 inches of break, compared to a sweeper in 2022 with 43 inches of drop and 15 inches of break.

Wells has also slightly increased his curveball usage, with the four-seamer and cutter seeing the requisite drops. The latter has been a lot flatter (dropping 20 percentage points in Rise%) but the cutter has risen 20 points, getting an elite 2.9 inches more than pitches thrown at similar velocity and extension. Not that those changes have brought any more chases or whiffs, with the cutter dropping significantly in SwStr%, Whiff%, and oSwing%.

Category Check

Strikeouts

The clear laggard in Wells’s value, a 22% K% will generally be a roto anchor unless the other categories stay sparkling, and it tends to be difficult to keep them shiny without an above-average strikeout rate. It goes round and round; it’s called a vicious circle. Looking forward, nothing screams that more K’s are coming, with the mediocrity of his K% being matched by the same in SwStr%, oSw%, and Whiff%, and none of his individual pitches really standing out in their whiff rates. The changeup isn’t bad (and does lead his mix in finishing batters off) but you’re asking a lot of a pitcher that tops out at 93-94 mph to increase his strikeouts by leading with a changeup that is only above average at best.

ERA

Everyone knows regression is coming, right? Wells gets few strikeouts and groundballs and has posted a 2.68 ERA in 2023 that’s backed by a 4.49 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, and 4.14 SIERA, while running a .145 BABIP and 88% LOB%. I repeat; regression IS coming.

WHIP

Wells has always had good control and this year is no different (career: 6% BB%, 2023: 5.2% BB%). But remember that .145 BABIP (career entering 2023: .240 BABIP)? It leads all qualified starters by a significant margin, with the .180 BABIP of Shohei Ohtani coming in second. Yeah, the hammer of regression will crack his WHIP too. Book it.

Wins

This is the category most out of a pitcher’s hands but the team context surrounding Wells is still pretty conducive for putting yourself in a position to grab wins when pitching well, or even just okay. The Orioles give plenty of support with a top-10 offense and have a bullpen that is only average overall but is really, really good on the backend with Felix Bautista (1.42 ERA, 44% K%), Yennier Cano (0.00 ERA, 36% K%), and Bryan Baker (1.77 ERA, 32%). Translation: If you go six innings with a lead, I like your chances.

Rest-of-Season Value

The above doesn’t paint a pretty picture of how the rest of 2023 will go for Wells, as nothing points to some underlying breakout. He is what he is – a decent pitcher on a good run of favorable results that aren’t necessarily backed by evidence saying anything has changed in his talent level. That’s not to say he won’t be useful going forward but how much he is will depend on you. If you think someone will bite and you can “sell high”, sure, go ahead. However, I doubt much of your competition will be clamoring to trade for a pop-up starter like Wells.

No, the way you get value out of Wells is by ducking that hammer of regression like you’re a whack-a-mole on speed. Don’t give away all of that “lucky” value you’ve already booked by turning Wells into an “always start guy” based on his hot start and any FOMO you might suffer from sitting him. In the short term, that means I’m probably trying not trying to risk him in his next two starts (vs LAA, @ NYY), keeping him on the pine until a more favorable start vs CLE that he lines up for after.

51 IP: 4 W – 47 K – 1.57 ERA – 0.79 WHIP (SP #5)

Specs Check

The 30-year-old left-hander and his pitch mix are in 2023 about what they’ve been previously, both in his overall pitch usage and what he uses against each-handed batter:

Rodriguez has seen some big increases in the CSW% of his three most-used pitches (both in SwStr% and Call%) and in their Whiff%, as well as some big bumps in groundball rates in a couple of places. While most of those things are much improved from 2022, they’ve actually just returned to where they were in prior seasons. In other words, it’s less that they got suddenly better and more that he just shook some of the stank off from last year.

Category Check

Strikeouts

His strikeout rate cratered in 2022 to a career-low 18% K% but has bounced right back to the 25% K% that it’s been virtually every other season besides his rookie year. The fact that he’s also gotten right back to running the same strike rates (CSW%, SwStr%, Whiff%) that he did before last year’s outlier season (both overall and by pitch) tells me that the strikeouts aren’t going anywhere, whether up or down. Consistency, thy name is E-Rod.

ERA

We know his ridiculous 1.57 ERA isn’t going to hold, but while a 3.07 FIP tells us he’s still been pretty good, a 3.67 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA point toward him being much as he’s often been. Rodriguez is generally a good but not great run preventer when at his best and will balance raw run totals with bulk innings.

WHIP

Rodriguez entered the year with a .307 BABIP for his career but has faced just a .209 BABIP so far in 2023, making more hits in his future a pretty easy bet. Not to mention that a bad WHIP has always been a bugaboo for his fantasy value, with a 1.31 WHIP for his career, with a 1.26 WHIP representing his high-water mark.

However, his WHIP bouncedown will be cushioned if he continues to shave a few points off the ~8% BB% he’s run in the past. Rodriguez has a 5% BB so far in 2023, with a 106 Location+ score that is up five points from last season.

Wins

Normally, this is the time where we say something along the lines of “counting on wins from a Detroit pitcher is a fool’s errand” but aren’t the Tigers good now? Ok, so they’re not – but they’re also not terrible! Considering how bad recent history has been, we have to take it and be happy. The best versions of Rodriguez put himself in line for a lot of decisions by getting deep into games and he’s done that in spades this season, going at least 5 IP in every start but one, and going at least 7 IP in four of his eight starts.

Rest-of-Season Value

The ratios will inevitably rise but I’m not expecting some calamitous fall and what his strikeouts lack in bulk they make up for in consistency. While it won’t be a sub-2.00 ERA for long, Rodriguez is basically doing what many were expecting in 2022 when he was a popular sleeper– putting up a lot of innings with a reliable strikeout rate that will compile itself to a more valuable total at the end.

Like Wells, Rodriguez isn’t any every-start pitcher but the band of opponents I’m willing to start him against will be much higher. That includes a matchup with the Pirates that will start in a few hours*, and certainly against the Royals and White Sox in a two-step next week.

* I take it all back! Okay, not really but Rodriguez was not his best self against the Pirates, allowing 4 ER on five hits in 5 IP, striking out six.

56 IP:  5 W – 69 K – 2.38 ERA – 1.02 WHIP (SP #6)

Specs Check

Ahh, where to begin? This isn’t your older brother’s Mitch Keller because Keller is a far different pitcher than what he was coming up as one of Pittsburgh’s top prospects and promptly getting shelled, posting a 6.02 ERA from 2019-2021 and a better but still bad 4.55 ERA over the first half of 2022. The second half of last season brought change and with it much better results. Keller ran a 3.09 ERA in the second half of the season but actually started getting better prior to the All-Star break, with his final two starts prior resulting in 13 IP, 1 ER, and 11 K.

Part of Keller 2.0 this year came from a 2-mph velocity bump last season, but he also added a sinker (22%) which wasn’t particularly special in its 2022 form but has added around two more inches of horizontal break, giving him something more effective with which to work in on righties and away from lefties. Then there’s the cutter (24%) whose usage is nearly tied with his four-seamer (25%). It might only get an average amount of whiffs but can really get in LHH, breaking bats and bringing bad contact.

Like the sinker, the cutter isn’t super special by itself, it’s more how it works with the sinker. The 45-minute deviation in the spin axis of the latter gives a seam-shifted “push” in one direction, while the 60-minute deviation of the cutter moves in the opposite direction. While that pairing is strong by itself, the sweeper that Keller added in 2022 is the final piece of the puzzle, averaging 19.3 inches of break that is second only to Rich Hill.

Put the movement profiles of the three together (along with his four-seamer) and we can see the difficulty that RHH might have:

Take it all together and you have a version of Keller that has the increased velocity from last year along with a pitch mix that might not have any over-the-top whiffs by itself, but when taken together they allow him to attack both hands of batters in a variety of ways.

Category Check

Strikeouts

With just a 10.3% SwStr%, Keller might be out over his skis a bit with a 30% K%; he is getting above-average whiffs with the sweeper (17% SwStr%) but everything besides his four-seamer (16%) is well below average. However, while I might not be in on a new 30% K% norm, a 25% K% floor with upside seems perfectly reasonable – and more than useful.

ERA

Sure, regression is coming just like with Wells and Rodriguez, but I like the chances way more of Keller finishing closer to a 3.00 ERA than a 4.00 ERA. What can I say? I’m a sucker for starters that can attack the zone with multiple fastballs that have seam-shifted wake effects pushing them in different directions. It makes for a shifty mix that’s high in deception and keeps batters off balance enough to help their breaking stuff play up.

WHIP

Another pitcher that has seemingly realized that walks are actually pretty bad, Keller has shaved almost three points off of his walk rate in 2022, which in turn was down a couple of points from 2021. He’s absolutely pumping strikes relative to previous seasons, with a 57% Zone that’s a career-high and up seven points from 2022 and seems very comfortable in his ability to generate bad contact and weak fly balls. And a .286 BABIP that isn’t grossly below average, says it’s not just some batted-ball luck.

It’s easy to trust in a walk rate that has been dropping for a while, as a hit rate that doesn’t seem overly driven by batted-ball good fortune. Keller might not be a 1.00 WHIP guy going forward but considering the categorical anchors his numbers have been before, even something sub-1.10 would be a total paradigm shift in his overall value.

Wins

This is normally the time when we pivot to jokes about how bad the Pirates are and that hoping for more than double-digit wins would make you quite the silly jawn. Hold on one second – the Pirates are good now! Ha-ha! I mean, everyone remembers that magical April run when they ran rampant over the NL Central, at one point winning 11-of-12 games. Surely, we can trust this Pittsburgh team to help their starters on their quest to break the 1o-win barrier.

Well, unfortunately, the winning showers of April turned into May showers of reality, with the Pirates having now lost 12 of their last 15 games. While the offense has mostly dried up over this bad stretch, the back of the bullpen is more than good enough to hold out any leads that Keller turns over. Keller might not be the 15+ games winner he’s pacing out to be, but I’d probably take the over if you set the number at 12.

Rest-of-Season Value

It’s pretty clear that I’m buying the breakout. I love the new pitch mix and how he’s able to attack batters with it, with the sweeper adding the final missing element that he needed to put it all together. While some regression is likely coming to his ratios and strikeout rate, it won’t be so much as to tank his overall value.

Even if Keller falls “all the way back” to a 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 25% K% for the rest of the season, isn’t that something you’d still be very pretty interested in, especially considering how pitching has gone so far this season? Because I am…Sweet jeebus – did I really just recommend a Pirate???

Well, well, well – look who’s jawning now.

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