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How do League Two play-off winners fare after promotion?
So, looking at all the clubs who’ve gone before them, how can we expect the Blues to fare in the higher division?
Here, we take a look at how their play-off predecessors have got on after clinching promotion through the most dramatic method – and eye up any likely trends.
ON AVERAGE
Carlisle can anticipate a lower mid-table finish in League One next season if they tend towards the standard.
That’s because the average third-tier finish for play-off winners in the campaign following promotion is 14th.
Only one play-off winner has actually finished in that position – Leyton Orient back in 1989.
But the mid-table cluster is where, more often than not, clubs tend to be found a year after their play-off glory.
Of the 36 sides who’ve gone up this way before United, 15 have secured top-half finishes, with 21 ending in the bottom half.
Only two have taken their play-off momentum all the way to a second consecutive promotion, and a further three managed a play-off finish in the higher league – while seven suffered an immediate relegation back where they came from.
Otherwise, it’s the middle area, and consolidation, for the play-off champs.
THE RECENT PAST
The very recent play-off winners have tended to be involved in a battle for survival to at least some degree.
Last term, 2021/22’s play-off winners Port Vale finished 18th in League One in 2022/23, four points above the drop zone.
Before that, Morecambe stayed up in 19th after winning the previous League Two play-offs.
But the two play-off champions before that, Northampton Town and Tranmere Rovers, both came straight back down in 22nd and 21st respectively.
Tranmere, in 2020, were the first play-off winners to be immediately relegated for nine years, as other sides in the intervening period held their own.
And, the further back you go, the more cases you find of sides who made the transition rather better.
SUCCESS STORIES
If Carlisle can somehow emulate the feats of Southend United in 2006 and Cambridge United in 1991, then the scenes at Brunton Park and indeed on Botchergate will be wild indeed.
Those two sides, after coming up from the fourth-tier play-offs, went on to win the third-tier title the following season.
They secured Championship football (or Division One football, or Division Two football, to be individually specific) thanks to hugely impressive back-to-back promotions.
They are the only two cases of a fourth-tier play-off winner going straight up again, though others have stepped up almost as well.
Three sides have gone on to make the play-offs for a second straight season having stepped up a level.
The most recent was Stevenage, who finished sixth in League One in 2011/12 after winning the League Two play-offs the previous year.
Before that, Northampton Town’s 1997/8 season brought a fourth-placed finish a year after play-off promotion, with York City coming fifth in 1993/4 having gone up the same route.
None managed a second straight play-off victory, but it was fine work all the same.
And, lest we forget, Carlisle are currently managed by a bloke who has already delivered back-to-back Blues promotions in his time…
STRUGGLERS
Life can, inevitably, be hard for some who force their way into the third tier at the very last. In some cases the transition proves too much.
On seven occasions out of 36, the fourth-tier play-off winners have come straight back down.
The most recent was Northampton Town – taken up by Keith Curle in 2020, dropping back down again in 2021.
Tranmere Rovers also did it the season before, while other play-off winners who haven’t managed to string things out into a second third-tier term have been Dagenham & Redbridge (relegated in 2011), Gillingham (2010), Cheltenham Town (2003), Scunthorpe United (2000) and Torquay United (1992).
THE MIDDLE GROUND
A majority of sides have ended up in the large chunk of the table below the play-off places and above the relegation zone.
Indeed, 24 of the 36 play-off winners before Carlisle have found themselves in this zone the following term, at the very least establishing themselves for a longer run at the level.
Those who’ve stepped up most admirably in this respect have included Coventry City (8th in 2019), Huddersfield Town (9th in 2005), AFC Bournemouth (9th in 2004), Chesterfield (7th in 1996) and Wycombe Wanderers (6th in 1995).
Teams who’ve been bang in the middle ground after play-off promotion include Blackpool (12th in 2018), Bradford City (11th in 2014), Crewe Alexandra (13th in 2013), Peterborough United (12th in 2001) and Swansea City (12th in 1989).
Those who’ve had to settle for lower mid-table or further down include AFC Wimbledon (15th in 2017), Bristol Rovers (16th in 2008) and a Blackpool side including play-off final goalscorer Paul Simpson (16th in 2002).
THE RUNDOWN
Here is a list of where all League Two’s play-off winners have finished in their first League One season after promotion.
2022/23 – Port Vale – 18th
2021/22 – Morecambe – 19th
2020/21 – Northampton Town – 22nd (relegated)
2019/20 – Tranmere Rovers – 21st (relegated)
2018/19 – Coventry City – 8th
2017/18 – Blackpool – 12th
2016/17 – AFC Wimbledon – 15th
2015/16 – Southend United – 15th
2014/15 – Fleetwood Town – 10th
2013/14 – Bradford City – 11th
2012/13 – Crewe Alexandra – 13th
2011/12 – Stevenage – 6th (play-offs)
2010/11 – Dagenham & Redbridge – 21st (relegated)
2009/10 – Gillingham – 21st (relegated)
2008/09 – Stockport County – 18th
2007/08 – Bristol Rovers – 16th
2006/07 – Cheltenham Town – 17th
2005/06 – Southend United – 1st (promoted)
2004/05 – Huddersfield Town – 9th
2003/04 – AFC Bournemouth – 9th
2002/03 – Cheltenham Town – 21st (relegated)
2001/02 – Blackpool – 16th
2000/01 – Peterborough United – 12th
1999/00 – Scunthorpe United – 23rd (relegated)
1998/99 – Colchester United – 18th
1997/98 – Northampton Town – 4th (play-offs)
1996/97 – Plymouth Argyle – 19th
1995/96 – Chesterfield – 7th
1994/95 – Wycombe Wanderers – 6th
1993/94 – York City – 5th (play-offs)
1992/93 – Blackpool – 18th
1991/92 – Torquay United – 23rd
1990/91 – Cambridge United – 1st (promoted)
1989/90 – Leyton Orient – 14th
1988/89 – Swansea City – 12th
1987/88 – Aldershot Town – 20th
