League Two play-off final tips and odds

For the League Two play-off final between Carlisle and Stockport County today (kick-off, 1.30pm), our betting expert has picked out his top three tips for the match below, along with detailed analysis to support his selections. Scroll down to read more.

Carlisle vs Stockport County betting tips

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Carlisle can hold their nerve

Carlisle limped to the end of the League Two season, winning just two of their final 11 matches before turning a 1-0 deficit into a 3-2 aggregate win over Bradford City in the play-off semi-final. 

Manager Paul Simpson has a deep squad and took the brave decision to leave Kristian Dennis, his top scorer this season with 20 goals, from his starting line-up for both games against City.

County manager Dave Challinor has been without his own top scorer, Kyle Wootton, since mid-April and key midfielder Will Collar has not started a game for over a month.

Collar did feature in the semi-final, second leg against Salford, which Stockport won 2-1 after extra time to level the aggregate score at 2-2, before prevailing 3-1 in a penalty shoot-out.

That hard-fought win may have taken more out of Stockport and our fancy is for Carlisle to win.

Carlisle vs Stockport County tip 1: Carlisle to win @ 9/5 with LiveScore Bet

Moxon magic could tip balance

Owen Moxon was the only Carlisle player named in the League Two team of the season and he can make his mark on the play-off final by scoring against Stockport.

The 25-year-old, recruited last summer from Scottish League Two outfit Annan Athletic, finished the campaign with 15 assists – a joint-best for the division alongside Salford’s Elliott Watt – and six goals.

Moxon was heavily involved in the 3-1 success at home to Bradford. His stinging shot preceded Brad Haliday’s own goal and he produced a superb cross for the decisive third goal from Ben Barclay.

He should have a huge role to play at Wembley and looks a value 6/1 shot to notch.

Carlisle vs Stockport County tip 2: Owen Moxon to score any time @ 6/1 with LiveScore Bet

Tight tussle could be low-scoring

Ten of Carlisle’s past 13 league fixtures generated under three goals and it could be a tight match at Wembley, with Stockport having scored fewer than two goals in 11 of their previous 14 fixtures.

Carlisle have better attacking options and one of them is Crystal Palace loanee John-Kymani Gordon.

Gordon returned from a three-game ban to start the semi-final success over Bradford and his pace and power make him one of the main goal threats for the Cumbrian side.

Carlisle vs Stockport County tip 3: Carlisle to win, John-Kymani Gordon to score any time and under 2.5 goals @ 21.5/1 with LiveScore Bet

Carlisle vs Stockport County odds

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Carlisle vs Stockport County team news

Carlisle United

Simpson will have to make one change with Ben  Barclay ineligible against his parent club but Jon Mellish is a natural replacement. Kymani-Gordon is likely to retain his place up front.

Predicted line-up (3-5-2): Holy; Whelan, Mellish, Huntington; Senior, Guy, McCalmont, Moxon, Armer; Garner, Gordon.

Stockport County

Wootton is sure to be missed as he has been for the past two months. Collar will likely return to the starting XI after playing a part in the semi-final.

Predicted line-up (3-5-2): Hinchcliffe; Lewis, Horsfall, Hussey; Knoyle, Wright, Camps, Collar, Rydel; Olaofe, Madden.

Last five results

Carlisle United

20 May L2PO Carlisle 3 Bradford 1 W (aet: 1-1 90 min)

14 May L2PO Bradford 1 Carlisle 0 L

8 May L2 Sutton United 1 Carlisle 1 D

29 April L2 Carlisle 2 Salford 3 L

22 April L2 Barrow 0 Carlisle 1 W

Stockport County

20 May L2PO Stockport 2 Salford 1 W (pen: 3-1)

13 May L2PO Salford 1 Stockport 0 L

8 May L2 Stockport 1 Hartlepool 1 D

29 April L2 Leyton Orient 0 Stockport 3 W

22 April L2 Stockport 1 Rochdale 0 W

L2PO League Two play-offs L2 League Two