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Liverpool could qualify for Champions League despite finishing fifth under new UEFA rules
With less than two weeks of the Premier League season remaining, Liverpool’s outside hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League remain in the balance.
After Monday night’s 3-0 victory over Leicester City, the Reds sit a point behind Newcastle United and Manchester United in fifth place. However, they have played a game more than both the Magpies and the Red Devils.
As a result, already assured of a top six finish and Europa League qualification, they need at least one of Newcastle and Manchester United to only win one of their three remaining matches, while winning both of their own last two games, if they are to secure an unlikely top four finish.
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Newcastle play their game-in-hand on Thursday at home to Brighton & Hove Albion, before hosting Leicester City next Monday, and then finishing the season away at Chelsea. Meanwhile, United travel to AFC Bournemouth on Saturday, before hosting Chelsea in their game-in-hand on Thursday 25 May, and finishing the campaign at home to Fulham.
While Liverpool could pick up maximum points in their own remaining matches, at home to Aston Villa and away to already-relegated Southampton, it is still a big ask for either of the two sides above them to drop the required points to make a Reds top four finish possible.
In desperation, some fans will have perhaps wondered if there was any backdoor way into next year’s Champions League for Jurgen Klopp’s side. For example, if Man City were to win the tournament this season, would England be handed a fifth qualifying berth? Alas, the answer is no.
As a result, if Liverpool don’t usurp at least one of Newcastle United and Manchester United, they will be playing in the Europa League next season.
In truth, it looks set to be tougher for the Reds to qualify for the Champions League again next season regardless, given the improved competition they will face.
Pep Guardiola’s domineering Man City will strengthen their squad as they always do, while Arsenal and Newcastle United are currently set to enjoy the riches of Champions League football after years in the wilderness. Meanwhile, Manchester United could be financially backed by new owners this summer, while Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea will want to back their new managers in the transfer market.
Throw in Robert De Zerbi’s Brighton side almost gatecrashing the top four party this year, and set to have a significant warchest of their own to spend off the back of big-name departures. While it is premature to call them Champions League hopefuls, the Seagulls will be looking to build on their impressive campaign this year.
Liverpool will be improved themselves, of course, with a midfield revamp planned this summer at the very least. Alexis Mac Allister, Mason Mount, and Ryan Gravenberch are all of interest, with further close-season business also plotted.
The race for Champions League football is set to be fought even more fiercely in the years ahead as a result. So it’s just as well that while fifth place doesn’t currently qualify for the European Cup, that could be about to change.
The Champions League format is set to change from the 2024/25 season, with the 32-team tournament being expanded to 36 clubs. A traditional group-stage will be removed with all 36 teams being put into one league table, with each of the qualifying sides playing eight games – four at home and four away.
Those teams who finish first to eighth will automatically qualify for the round-of-16, with the knock-out stages from that point onwards remaining the same as the current system. Meanwhile, the sides that finish between ninth and 24th will contest a two-legged play-off with the eight victors also progressing to the last 16.
So how will the four new entrants be determined?
One additional side will qualify via the “Champions Path” qualifying route, which features the leagues ranked outside the top 10 in the UEFA Country Coefficient. Meanwhile, the league ranked fifth in the UEFA Coefficients will also be handed an additional place.
France currently occupy that place, with their top two sides currently qualifying for the Champions League group-stages and their third-placed side entering at the third qualifying round. Under the new format, the top three sides would qualify automatically for the new league format, with their fourth-place side instead entering the qualifiers as opposed to the Europa League group-stage as previously.
The final two spots will be reserved for the two countries with the highest coefficient score in the current season. If the new format was being introduced next year rather than 2024/25, England and Italy would both be handed a fifth qualifying spot in the Champions League as a result. Meanwhile, in three of the past four campaigns, a Premier League team would have received one of the additional slots as a result.
Liverpool’s transitional campaign has essentially come a year too early to benefit from the change of format, which would have seen fifth place qualify for the Champions League.
And while the possibility of an extra spot for English clubs could aid them in their efforts to qualify next season, presuming Premier League sides again perform strongly, so too would winning the Europa League with the champions of Europe’s secondary competition still reserved a place in the Champions League group stages under the new format.
Yet, Klopp will inevitably be hoping his side return to competing at the very top of the table and find themselves battling for titles rather than mere Champions League qualification when the 2023/24 season nears its end.
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