‘Why is Chester South and Eddisbury seen as such a prize?’

Back in 2020, the commission was tasked with changing the size of all constituencies. The reasoning was to make sure constituencies were all roughly a similar size (in terms of number of voters) and reflect local ties between areas. Constituencies must now be within five per cent of the ‘electoral quota’ of 73,393.

So some constituencies will cease to exist once the government accepts the recommendations next month. New constituencies will be created while some will have their boundaries changed a little to reflect changing population numbers.

While brings us to the vast, sprawling, Tory-voting Eddisbury which will become Chester South and Eddisbury. While it has lost Winsford under the changes it will stretch from the Weaver and Cuddington ward in the north to Audlem in the south, taking in great swathes of rural, picturesque Cheshire countryside.

To say it has become a much-coveted prize is something of an understatement following the announcement that incumbent MP Edward Timpson will be standing down at the next general election.

According to Mr Timpson, he will be taking up advocacy and legal roles focusing on vulnerable children, ‘using all I learned as a family lawyer prior to my election, and all I have learned in Government as Minister for Children and Families and HM Solicitor General’.

Good luck to Mr Timpson. He always struck me as a decent man.

So why is Chester South and Eddisbury considered such a prize? Well think back to the heady days of the 1990s. The age of Thatcherism was over and an embattled John Major was up against a revitalised New Labour and Tony Blair.

The writing was on the wall for the Tories as the 1997 general election loomed and just about everyone could see it. Of course, Blair swept to power on the back of a stunning victory that saw Labour command a 179-seat parliamentary majority.

And if the polls are accurate and the commentariat is correct, we could see something similar happening at the next general election with Labour on course to oust the Tories.

Back in 1997, a new phrase was coined among the Tory ranks – ‘doing the chicken run’.

The term described the trend of Conservative MPs fighting to secure safer seats ahead of the predicted New Labour landslide. Fast forward to now and it looks like the prospect of doing the chicken run is back on the agenda for some current Tory MPs and the run for some will end at Chester South and Eddisbury.

There has already been a modicum of outrage (faux or otherwise) when claims were made that Tory Dr Kieran Mullan wanted to ditch his Crewe and Nantwich constituency (which is predicted to swing to Labour) for the new, safer Chester South and Eddisbury seat.

Reports suggest he wanted to be parachuted into the seat but political website Guido Fawkes has since reported Dr Mullan has rowed back on that and will put himself up for selection along with other candidates.

Whether or not he has the blessing of the Tory hierarchy is a matter of conjecture.

Conservative Campaign Headquarters has established a ‘displacement committee’ to rule on cases involving MPs who wish to fight a different seat.

Those given a displacement dispensation are either placed in the final three candidates of another seat in their area or are given an interview with the executive of an association in a different region.

According to theguardian.com, at least eight have been given the go-ahead by Conservative headquarters to prepare to stand in different seats. The constituencies of some are being abolished or merged but others have argued their patch will be ‘drastically changed’.

So who are the other likely runners and riders with their eyes on the Chester South and Eddisbury prize?

This may be a wild guess (one backed up by Guido Fawkes) but Warrington South’s Andy Carter is one of those given a displacement dispensation and last week announced he wouldn’t be standing again in Warrington (where he’s likely to lose) while he sought ‘new opportunities’. However, he didn’t give any indication what or where those opportunities were likely to be.

Other names in the frame include Heywood and Middleton MP Chris Clarkson and Wolverhampton South West’s Stuart Anderson.

Throw into the mix Richard Walker, the executive chairman of frozen food giant Iceland and it looks like the voters of Chester South and Eddisbury are in for an interesting time.